| Hurricane Research Christopher Fogarty B.Sc, D.Met., M.Sc, Ph.D. Canadian Hurricane Center / Atlantic Storm Prediction Center / National Lab for Marine and Coastal Meteorology |
Hurricane Michael (2000) Storm
Summary and Forecast
Verification Report
Christopher T. Fogarty, Meteorological Service of Canada
Complete Document (pdf)
Links to the Figures:
Part 1: Fig1 | Fig2 | Fig3 | Fig4 | Fig5 | Fig6 | Fig7 | Fig8 | Fig9 | Fig10a |
Fig10b | Fig11a | Fig11b | Fig12 | Fig13
Part 2: Fig1 | Fig 2 | Fig3
Summary and Forecast
Verification Report
Christopher T. Fogarty, Meteorological Service of Canada
Complete Document (pdf)
Links to the Figures:
Part 1: Fig1 | Fig2 | Fig3 | Fig4 | Fig5 | Fig6 | Fig7 | Fig8 | Fig9 | Fig10a |
Fig10b | Fig11a | Fig11b | Fig12 | Fig13
Part 2: Fig1 | Fig 2 | Fig3
Case Study of Hurricane Karen
(2001)
Christopher T. Fogarty, Meteorological Service of Canada
Report (pdf)
Figures from the report:
CAPPI and Doppler Imagery from XGO
Track Map
Surface Analysis (1200 UTC 15 October, 2001)
Reconnaissance Flight Track and AVHRR Image
Convair Reconnaissance Aircraft
Photo of Storm Clouds SW of storm centre
(2001)
Christopher T. Fogarty, Meteorological Service of Canada
Report (pdf)
Figures from the report:
CAPPI and Doppler Imagery from XGO
Track Map
Surface Analysis (1200 UTC 15 October, 2001)
Reconnaissance Flight Track and AVHRR Image
Convair Reconnaissance Aircraft
Photo of Storm Clouds SW of storm centre
Aircraft Reconnaissance Study -
Hurricane Michael and TS Karen
Jim Abraham, Chris Fogarty, Walter Strapp (MSC/MRB)
Michael cross-sections DROPSONDES MAP
Dropsondes 1-11
Dry Temperature Relative Humidity Horizontal Wind
Potential Temperature Equivalent Potential Temperature
Vertical Velocity
Karen cross-sections DROPSONDES MAP
LEG 1 - Dropsondes 1-4, 6-11
Dry Temperature Relative Humidity Horizontal Wind
Potential Temperature Equivalent Potential Temperature
LEG 2 - Dropsondes 13-19
Dry Temperature Relative Humidity Horizontal Wind
Potential Temperature Equivalent Potential Temperature
Hurricane Michael and TS Karen
Jim Abraham, Chris Fogarty, Walter Strapp (MSC/MRB)
Michael cross-sections DROPSONDES MAP
Dropsondes 1-11
Dry Temperature Relative Humidity Horizontal Wind
Potential Temperature Equivalent Potential Temperature
Vertical Velocity
Karen cross-sections DROPSONDES MAP
LEG 1 - Dropsondes 1-4, 6-11
Dry Temperature Relative Humidity Horizontal Wind
Potential Temperature Equivalent Potential Temperature
LEG 2 - Dropsondes 13-19
Dry Temperature Relative Humidity Horizontal Wind
Potential Temperature Equivalent Potential Temperature
ET Forecast Training
Hurricane Michael Forecasting Exercise (COMET)
Forecaster Training Notes on Hurricanes and ET(pdf)
BMRC ET Forecasting Module
Schematic of an ET storm
Hurricane Michael Forecasting Exercise (COMET)
Forecaster Training Notes on Hurricanes and ET(pdf)
BMRC ET Forecasting Module
Schematic of an ET storm
| Personal Information Links: Weather Recording Hobby Career Timeline Resume (CV) (unlinked due security reasons - but available on request) |
| This site is operated by Chris Fogarty last update 30 June 2013 Comments: E-MAIL |
| Weather Forecasting Site - NovaWeather |
| Kerry Emanuel (external examiner) and I at Dalhousie University after my PhD thesis Defence on March 3, 2006. Richard Greatbatch (PhD supervisor) and I after the graduation ceremony on May 29, 2006 |
PhD Project: Numerical modeling and
analysis of hurricanes moving into the
mid-latitudes
Project Proposal - (finalized 28 May 2004)
PhD Thesis - final version (20 March 2006)
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Hurricane Juan
CTRL = control run using observed SST
CLIM = run with climatology SST
Simulations of Hurricanes using the MC2 and JMA-type
synthetic vortex initialization:
SST analysis with storm track (late Sept/03)
SST analysis (valid 27 Sept - used in model) zoom-in
SST climatology (valid 28 Sept, Geshelin et al.)
SST anomaly detailed VIEW with track
MC2 model grid configuration
Model simulations of SLP and 10-m winds:
Animations: CTRL CLIM * NOBOG (no bogus)
Near Landfall: CTRL CLIM COMPARE
Simulated SWATHS of maximum winds
Wind shear 10m to 200m layer: SHEAR
CTRL, CLIM and best track (BT) PLOTS
MSLP, MSW and SST TRACES
Comparison between CTRL and CLIM total rainfall
Animation of CTRL rain rate
Cross-sections from model and dropsondes: 4-panel
Model animations of theta-e: 850 mb 500 mb
Cross sections of theta-e(CTRL and CLIM)
Latent Heat Fluxes: 12HR 19HR
Results of ensemble experiments
Fictitious run with 26C SST up to Nova Scotia coast:
Tracks Traces Landfall
See the Hurricane Juan page for verifying data
---------------------------------------------------------------------
Hurricane Michael
Full storm track and SST
Grid configurations
Tracks/SST composite - 12km runs
Tracks/SST composite - 3km runs
SST anomaly
Control bogus
Plots of results
Animations:
SLP and 60-m winds (12-km control run with bogus)
SLP and 60-m winds (12-km run without bogus)
850-mb theta-e with SLP (3-km control run)
500-mb theta-e with SLP (3-km control run)
Rain rate (3-km control run)
Model Output:
Time series: theta-e
Compare 24HR progs
19Z SLP/surface winds 19Z SLP/surface temp
Landfall SLP/wind
Ensembles: storm tracks SLP/MSW traces
---------------------------------------------------------------------
Hurricane Karen
Storm Track with SST
SST anomaly for 14 Oct 2001
grid configurations
Model Output:
Simulated tracks: 12km run 3km run
Time series of simulated MSLP/MSW/storm-center SST
SLP and cumulative rainfall animation
Impact of vortex insertion (PPT)
Pre-landfall SLP and rainfall pattern
Pre-landfall SLP and wind pattern
Theta-e at 950mb (3km run)
Theta-e at 500mb (3km run)
Rainfall comparison(different convective schemes)
Rainfall comparison (different cloud microphysics)
Summary of numerical guidance: TRACKS INTENSITY
Karen pre-landfall SLP/Wind
[CTRL vs run with Juan-SST: SST difference (JUAN-KAREN)]
Results initializing Karen at CATs 2 and 3 intensity
[CTRL was CAT1: 70 kt, 982 mb]
Ensembles: storm tracks SLP/MSW traces
[PROJECT DIRECTORY]
analysis of hurricanes moving into the
mid-latitudes
Project Proposal - (finalized 28 May 2004)
PhD Thesis - final version (20 March 2006)
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Hurricane Juan
CTRL = control run using observed SST
CLIM = run with climatology SST
Simulations of Hurricanes using the MC2 and JMA-type
synthetic vortex initialization:
SST analysis with storm track (late Sept/03)
SST analysis (valid 27 Sept - used in model) zoom-in
SST climatology (valid 28 Sept, Geshelin et al.)
SST anomaly detailed VIEW with track
MC2 model grid configuration
Model simulations of SLP and 10-m winds:
Animations: CTRL CLIM * NOBOG (no bogus)
Near Landfall: CTRL CLIM COMPARE
Simulated SWATHS of maximum winds
Wind shear 10m to 200m layer: SHEAR
CTRL, CLIM and best track (BT) PLOTS
MSLP, MSW and SST TRACES
Comparison between CTRL and CLIM total rainfall
Animation of CTRL rain rate
Cross-sections from model and dropsondes: 4-panel
Model animations of theta-e: 850 mb 500 mb
Cross sections of theta-e(CTRL and CLIM)
Latent Heat Fluxes: 12HR 19HR
Results of ensemble experiments
Fictitious run with 26C SST up to Nova Scotia coast:
Tracks Traces Landfall
See the Hurricane Juan page for verifying data
---------------------------------------------------------------------
Hurricane Michael
Full storm track and SST
Grid configurations
Tracks/SST composite - 12km runs
Tracks/SST composite - 3km runs
SST anomaly
Control bogus
Plots of results
Animations:
SLP and 60-m winds (12-km control run with bogus)
SLP and 60-m winds (12-km run without bogus)
850-mb theta-e with SLP (3-km control run)
500-mb theta-e with SLP (3-km control run)
Rain rate (3-km control run)
Model Output:
Time series: theta-e
Compare 24HR progs
19Z SLP/surface winds 19Z SLP/surface temp
Landfall SLP/wind
Ensembles: storm tracks SLP/MSW traces
---------------------------------------------------------------------
Hurricane Karen
Storm Track with SST
SST anomaly for 14 Oct 2001
grid configurations
Model Output:
Simulated tracks: 12km run 3km run
Time series of simulated MSLP/MSW/storm-center SST
SLP and cumulative rainfall animation
Impact of vortex insertion (PPT)
Pre-landfall SLP and rainfall pattern
Pre-landfall SLP and wind pattern
Theta-e at 950mb (3km run)
Theta-e at 500mb (3km run)
Rainfall comparison(different convective schemes)
Rainfall comparison (different cloud microphysics)
Summary of numerical guidance: TRACKS INTENSITY
Karen pre-landfall SLP/Wind
[CTRL vs run with Juan-SST: SST difference (JUAN-KAREN)]
Results initializing Karen at CATs 2 and 3 intensity
[CTRL was CAT1: 70 kt, 982 mb]
Ensembles: storm tracks SLP/MSW traces
[PROJECT DIRECTORY]
Fogarty, C. T., 2010: Newfoundland’s Most Damaging Hurricane in 75 years: Preliminary Storm Summary. Canadian Meteor. and
Oceanogr. Soc. Bul., 38(6), 209-217.
Fogarty, C. T., 2010: A probabilistic wind speed forecast product blending NHC TC-based fields with a dynamical model
ensemble. 29th Conf. on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology, 10-14 May, Tucson, AZ. Online at:
http://ams.confex.com/ams/29Hurricanes/techprogram/paper_168223.htm
Toth, G., I. Gultepe, J. Milbrandt, B. Hansen, G. Pearson, C. Fogarty, and W. Burrows, 2010: The Environment Canada Handbook
on Fog and Fog Forecasting. Environment Canada, 117 pp. Available online at http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/science/arma/fog
Mecking, J. V., C. T. Fogarty, R. J. Greatbatch, J. Sheng, and D. Mercer, 2009: Using atmospheric model output to simulate the
meteorological tsunami response to Tropical Storm Helene (2000), J. Geophys. Res., 114, C10005, doi:10.1029/2009JC005290.
Fogarty, C. T., 2008: An analysis of along- and cross-track forecast errors and error biases for TCs in the Atlantic Basin. 28th
Conf. on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology, 28 April - 2 May, Orlando, FL. Online at: http://ams.confex.
com/ams/28Hurricanes/techprogram/paper_137458.htm
Fogarty, C. T., R. J. Greatbatch, and H. Ritchie, 2007: The use of a vortex insertion technique to simulate the extratropical
transition of Hurricane Michael (2000). Wea. and Forecasting, 22, 480-500..
Fogarty, C. T., R. J. Greatbatch, and H. Ritchie, 2006: The role of anomalously warm sea surface temperatures on the intensity of
Hurricane Juan (2003) during its approach to Nova Scotia. Mon. Wea. Rev., 134, 1484-1504.
Fogarty, C. T., 2006: The extratropical transition of Tropical Storm Ophelia (2005): Summary of forecasts and meteorological
observations. 27th Conf. on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology, 24-28 April, Monterey, CA. Online at: http://ams.confex.
com/ams/pdfpapers/107911.pdf
Fogarty, C. T., and J. R. Gyakum, 2005: A study of extratropical transition in the western North Atlantic Ocean, 1963-1996.
Atmosphere-Ocean, 43(2), 173-191.
Jones, D., and C. T. Fogarty, 2005: The acoustic heartbeat of Hurricane Juan. Acous. Res. Letters Online - J. of the Acous. Soc.
of Amer. 6(2), 85-91.
Abraham, J., W. Strapp, C. T. Fogarty, and M. Wolde, 2004: Extratropical transition of Hurricane Michael: An aircraft investigation.
Bul. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 85, 1323-1339.
Fogarty, C. T., 2004: Aircraft data from rapidly-moving Hurricane Juan south of Nova Scotia. Preprints, 26th Conf. on Hurricanes
and Tropical Meteorology, 3-7 May 2004, Miami Beach, FL, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 166-167.
Fogarty, C. T., 2004: Why did a category-2 hurricane hit Nova Scotia?: An explanation of the unusual intensity of Hurricane Juan.
Canadian Meteor. and Oceanogr. Soc. Bul., 32(2), 41-42.
Ma, S., H. Ritchie, J. R. Gyakum, J. Abraham, C. T. Fogarty, and R. McTaggart-Cowan, 2003: A study of the extratropical
reintensification of former Hurricane Earl using Canadian Meteorological Centre regional analyses and ensemble forecasts. Mon.
Wea. Rev., 131, 1342-1359.
Fogarty, C. T., 2002: Hurricane Michael, 17-20 October, 2000: Part I - Summary report and storm impact on Canada. Part II -
Forecast and warning critique. Meteorological Service of Canada, Atlantic Region Science Report Series 2002-01, 35 pp.
Available online at http://www.novaweather.net/Hurricane_Michael_files/Michael_MSC.pdf
Fogarty, C. T., 2002: Operational forecasting of extratropical transition. Preprints, 25th Conf. on Hurricanes and Tropical
Meteorology, 29 April - 3 May 2002, San Diego, CA, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 491-492.
Abraham, J., C. T. Fogarty, and W. Strapp, 2002: Extratropical transition of Hurricanes Michael and Karen: Storm reconnaissance
with the Canadian Convair 580 aircraft. Preprints, 25th Conf. on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology, 29 April - 3 May 2002, San
Diego, CA, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 497-498.
Oceanogr. Soc. Bul., 38(6), 209-217.
Fogarty, C. T., 2010: A probabilistic wind speed forecast product blending NHC TC-based fields with a dynamical model
ensemble. 29th Conf. on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology, 10-14 May, Tucson, AZ. Online at:
http://ams.confex.com/ams/29Hurricanes/techprogram/paper_168223.htm
Toth, G., I. Gultepe, J. Milbrandt, B. Hansen, G. Pearson, C. Fogarty, and W. Burrows, 2010: The Environment Canada Handbook
on Fog and Fog Forecasting. Environment Canada, 117 pp. Available online at http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/science/arma/fog
Mecking, J. V., C. T. Fogarty, R. J. Greatbatch, J. Sheng, and D. Mercer, 2009: Using atmospheric model output to simulate the
meteorological tsunami response to Tropical Storm Helene (2000), J. Geophys. Res., 114, C10005, doi:10.1029/2009JC005290.
Fogarty, C. T., 2008: An analysis of along- and cross-track forecast errors and error biases for TCs in the Atlantic Basin. 28th
Conf. on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology, 28 April - 2 May, Orlando, FL. Online at: http://ams.confex.
com/ams/28Hurricanes/techprogram/paper_137458.htm
Fogarty, C. T., R. J. Greatbatch, and H. Ritchie, 2007: The use of a vortex insertion technique to simulate the extratropical
transition of Hurricane Michael (2000). Wea. and Forecasting, 22, 480-500..
Fogarty, C. T., R. J. Greatbatch, and H. Ritchie, 2006: The role of anomalously warm sea surface temperatures on the intensity of
Hurricane Juan (2003) during its approach to Nova Scotia. Mon. Wea. Rev., 134, 1484-1504.
Fogarty, C. T., 2006: The extratropical transition of Tropical Storm Ophelia (2005): Summary of forecasts and meteorological
observations. 27th Conf. on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology, 24-28 April, Monterey, CA. Online at: http://ams.confex.
com/ams/pdfpapers/107911.pdf
Fogarty, C. T., and J. R. Gyakum, 2005: A study of extratropical transition in the western North Atlantic Ocean, 1963-1996.
Atmosphere-Ocean, 43(2), 173-191.
Jones, D., and C. T. Fogarty, 2005: The acoustic heartbeat of Hurricane Juan. Acous. Res. Letters Online - J. of the Acous. Soc.
of Amer. 6(2), 85-91.
Abraham, J., W. Strapp, C. T. Fogarty, and M. Wolde, 2004: Extratropical transition of Hurricane Michael: An aircraft investigation.
Bul. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 85, 1323-1339.
Fogarty, C. T., 2004: Aircraft data from rapidly-moving Hurricane Juan south of Nova Scotia. Preprints, 26th Conf. on Hurricanes
and Tropical Meteorology, 3-7 May 2004, Miami Beach, FL, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 166-167.
Fogarty, C. T., 2004: Why did a category-2 hurricane hit Nova Scotia?: An explanation of the unusual intensity of Hurricane Juan.
Canadian Meteor. and Oceanogr. Soc. Bul., 32(2), 41-42.
Ma, S., H. Ritchie, J. R. Gyakum, J. Abraham, C. T. Fogarty, and R. McTaggart-Cowan, 2003: A study of the extratropical
reintensification of former Hurricane Earl using Canadian Meteorological Centre regional analyses and ensemble forecasts. Mon.
Wea. Rev., 131, 1342-1359.
Fogarty, C. T., 2002: Hurricane Michael, 17-20 October, 2000: Part I - Summary report and storm impact on Canada. Part II -
Forecast and warning critique. Meteorological Service of Canada, Atlantic Region Science Report Series 2002-01, 35 pp.
Available online at http://www.novaweather.net/Hurricane_Michael_files/Michael_MSC.pdf
Fogarty, C. T., 2002: Operational forecasting of extratropical transition. Preprints, 25th Conf. on Hurricanes and Tropical
Meteorology, 29 April - 3 May 2002, San Diego, CA, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 491-492.
Abraham, J., C. T. Fogarty, and W. Strapp, 2002: Extratropical transition of Hurricanes Michael and Karen: Storm reconnaissance
with the Canadian Convair 580 aircraft. Preprints, 25th Conf. on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology, 29 April - 3 May 2002, San
Diego, CA, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 497-498.
| Publications |
ET of Tropical Storm Ophelia
Storm track with SST
DAY 1 - SEPT 16: SST (16/00Z)
VIS SAT PIC: 16/1940
RADAR: 16/1800 (NOWRAD) Newport SKEW-T (12Z)
42RF mission:
DROPSONDES: MAP TABLE
WSPD: 2-6 9-12 12-18
THETAE: 2-6 9-12 12-18
RELH: 2-6 9-12 12-18
DAY 2 - SEPT 17: SST (16/00Z)
VIS SAT PICS: 17/1525 17/2015
RADAR: 17/2230
42RF mission:
DROPSONDES: MAP TABLE
WSPD: 1-5 5-11 13-18
THETAE: 1-5 5-11 14-18
RELH: 1-5 5-11 14-18
CHC Storm Summary (operational summary)
AOML page on Ophelia
Aerosonde Flight - Sept 16
Synoptic-scale analyses (HH/DD UTC):
SFC: 00/16 06/16 18/16 00/17 06/17 12/17 18/17 00/18
500 HT: 00/16 12/16 00/17 12/17 00/18
500 RH: 18/16 06/17 18/17
Rainfall analysis (courtesy of David Roth - HPC)
Storm track with SST
DAY 1 - SEPT 16: SST (16/00Z)
VIS SAT PIC: 16/1940
RADAR: 16/1800 (NOWRAD) Newport SKEW-T (12Z)
42RF mission:
DROPSONDES: MAP TABLE
WSPD: 2-6 9-12 12-18
THETAE: 2-6 9-12 12-18
RELH: 2-6 9-12 12-18
DAY 2 - SEPT 17: SST (16/00Z)
VIS SAT PICS: 17/1525 17/2015
RADAR: 17/2230
42RF mission:
DROPSONDES: MAP TABLE
WSPD: 1-5 5-11 13-18
THETAE: 1-5 5-11 14-18
RELH: 1-5 5-11 14-18
CHC Storm Summary (operational summary)
AOML page on Ophelia
Aerosonde Flight - Sept 16
Synoptic-scale analyses (HH/DD UTC):
SFC: 00/16 06/16 18/16 00/17 06/17 12/17 18/17 00/18
500 HT: 00/16 12/16 00/17 12/17 00/18
500 RH: 18/16 06/17 18/17
Rainfall analysis (courtesy of David Roth - HPC)
HURRICANE KATRINA
SIMULATIONS (MC2)
Animations (3km run): SLP 40-m wind speed Rain rate
(1km run): SLP 40-m wind speed Rain rate
Surface temperature
pre-storm SST post-storm SST change in SST Anomaly
12-km tracks 3-km tracks
Graphs of results
Simulated rainfall compared with observations
SIMULATIONS (MC2)
Animations (3km run): SLP 40-m wind speed Rain rate
(1km run): SLP 40-m wind speed Rain rate
Surface temperature
pre-storm SST post-storm SST change in SST Anomaly
12-km tracks 3-km tracks
Graphs of results
Simulated rainfall compared with observations
That schematic with satellite examples:
