Hurricane Research
Christopher Fogarty B.Sc, D.Met., M.Sc, Ph.D.
Canadian Hurricane Center / Atlantic Storm Prediction Center /
National Lab for Marine and Coastal Meteorology
Hurricane Michael (2000) Storm
Summary and Forecast
Verification Report

Christopher T. Fogarty, Meteorological Service of Canada

Complete Document (pdf)

Links to the Figures:
Part 1:  
Fig1 | Fig2 | Fig3 | Fig4 | Fig5 | Fig6 | Fig7 | Fig8 |  Fig9 | Fig10a |
Fig10b | Fig11a | Fig11b | Fig12 | Fig13

Part 2:  Fig1 | Fig 2 | Fig3
Case Study of Hurricane Karen
Christopher T. Fogarty, Meteorological Service of Canada
Report (pdf)

Figures from the report:
CAPPI and Doppler Imagery from XGO
Track Map
Surface Analysis (1200 UTC 15 October, 2001)
Reconnaissance Flight Track and AVHRR Image
Convair Reconnaissance Aircraft
Photo of Storm Clouds SW of storm centre
Aircraft Reconnaissance Study -
Hurricane Michael and TS Karen
Jim Abraham, Chris Fogarty, Walter Strapp (MSC/MRB)

Michael cross-sections DROPSONDES MAP
Dropsondes 1-11
Dry Temperature    Relative Humidity    Horizontal Wind
Potential Temperature    Equivalent Potential Temperature
Vertical Velocity

Karen cross-sections   DROPSONDES MAP
LEG 1 - Dropsondes 1-4, 6-11
Dry Temperature    Relative Humidity    Horizontal Wind
Potential Temperature    Equivalent Potential Temperature

LEG 2 - Dropsondes 13-19
Dry Temperature   Relative Humidity    Horizontal Wind
Potential Temperature    Equivalent Potential Temperature
ET Forecast Training

Hurricane Michael Forecasting Exercise (COMET)
Forecaster Training Notes on Hurricanes and ET(pdf)
BMRC ET Forecasting Module

Schematic of an ET storm
Personal Information Links:
Weather Recording Hobby    Career Timeline  Resume (CV)  (unlinked due security reasons - but available on request)
This site is operated by Chris Fogarty last update 30 June 2013
Weather Forecasting Site - NovaWeather
Kerry Emanuel (external examiner) and I at Dalhousie University
after my PhD thesis Defence on March 3, 2006.

Richard Greatbatch (PhD supervisor) and I after the
graduation ceremony on May 29, 2006
PhD Project: Numerical modeling and
analysis of hurricanes moving into the

Project Proposal - (finalized 28 May 2004)
PhD Thesis - final version (20 March 2006)
Hurricane Juan
CTRL = control run using observed SST
CLIM = run with climatology SST

Simulations of Hurricanes using the MC2 and JMA-type
synthetic vortex initialization:

SST analysis with storm track (late Sept/03)
SST analysis (valid 27 Sept - used in model) zoom-in
SST climatology (valid 28 Sept, Geshelin et al.)
SST anomaly detailed VIEW with track

MC2 model
grid configuration

Model simulations of SLP and 10-m winds:
CTRL  CLIM * NOBOG (no bogus)
Near Landfall: CTRL  CLIM   COMPARE
Simulated SWATHS of maximum winds
Wind shear 10m to 200m layer:
CTRL, CLIM and best track (BT) PLOTS

Comparison between CTRL and CLIM total rainfall
Animation of CTRL rain rate
Cross-sections from model and dropsondes: 4-panel
Model animations of theta-e:  850 mb   500 mb
Cross sections of theta-e(CTRL and CLIM)
Latent Heat Fluxes:  12HR   19HR
Results of ensemble experiments

Fictitious run with 26C SST up to Nova Scotia coast:
Tracks   Traces   Landfall

See the Hurricane Juan page for verifying data


Hurricane Michael
Full storm track and SST
Grid configurations
Tracks/SST composite - 12km runs
Tracks/SST composite - 3km runs
SST anomaly
Control bogus
Plots of results

SLP and 60-m winds (12-km control run with bogus)
SLP and 60-m winds (12-km run without bogus)
850-mb theta-e with SLP (3-km control run)
500-mb theta-e with SLP (3-km control run)
Rain rate (3-km control run)

Model Output:
Time series: theta-e
Compare 24HR progs
19Z SLP/surface winds    19Z SLP/surface temp
Landfall SLP/wind
Ensembles: storm tracks    SLP/MSW traces


Hurricane Karen
Storm Track with SST
SST anomaly for 14 Oct 2001
grid configurations
Model Output:
Simulated tracks:  
12km run    3km run
Time series of simulated MSLP/MSW/storm-center SST
SLP and cumulative rainfall animation
Impact of vortex insertion (PPT)
Pre-landfall SLP and rainfall pattern
Pre-landfall SLP and wind pattern
Theta-e at 950mb (3km run)
Theta-e at 500mb (3km run)
Rainfall comparison(different convective schemes)
Rainfall comparison (different cloud microphysics)

Summary of numerical guidance:  TRACKS   INTENSITY

Karen pre-landfall SLP/Wind
[CTRL vs run with Juan-SST: SST difference (JUAN-KAREN)]
Results initializing Karen at CATs 2 and 3 intensity
[CTRL was CAT1: 70 kt, 982 mb]

Ensembles:  storm tracks   SLP/MSW traces

Fogarty, C. T., 2010: Newfoundland’s Most Damaging Hurricane in 75 years: Preliminary Storm Summary. Canadian Meteor. and
Oceanogr. Soc. Bul
., 38(6), 209-217.

Fogarty, C. T., 2010:  A probabilistic wind speed forecast product blending NHC TC-based fields with a dynamical model
ensemble. 29th Conf. on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology, 10-14 May, Tucson, AZ. Online at:

Toth, G., I. Gultepe, J. Milbrandt, B. Hansen, G. Pearson, C. Fogarty, and W. Burrows, 2010: The Environment Canada Handbook
on Fog and Fog Forecasting. Environment Canada, 117 pp.  Available online at

Mecking, J. V., C. T. Fogarty, R. J. Greatbatch, J. Sheng, and D. Mercer, 2009: Using atmospheric model output to simulate the
meteorological tsunami response to Tropical Storm Helene (2000), J. Geophys. Res.,
114, C10005, doi:10.1029/2009JC005290.

Fogarty, C. T., 2008:  An analysis of along- and cross-track forecast errors and error biases for TCs in the Atlantic Basin.  28th
Conf. on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology, 28 April - 2 May, Orlando, FL. Online at:

Fogarty, C. T., R. J. Greatbatch, and H. Ritchie, 2007: The use of a vortex insertion technique to simulate the extratropical     
transition of Hurricane Michael (2000).
Wea. and Forecasting, 22, 480-500..

Fogarty, C. T., R. J. Greatbatch, and H. Ritchie, 2006: The role of anomalously warm sea surface temperatures on the intensity of
Hurricane Juan (2003) during its approach to Nova Scotia.
Mon. Wea. Rev., 134, 1484-1504.

Fogarty, C. T., 2006:  The extratropical transition of Tropical Storm Ophelia (2005): Summary of forecasts and meteorological
observations. 27th Conf. on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology, 24-28 April, Monterey, CA. Online at:

Fogarty, C. T., and J. R. Gyakum, 2005: A study of extratropical transition in the western North Atlantic Ocean, 1963-1996.
Atmosphere-Ocean, 43(2), 173-191.

Jones, D., and C. T. Fogarty, 2005: The acoustic heartbeat of Hurricane Juan.
Acous. Res. Letters Online - J. of the Acous. Soc.
of Amer
. 6(2), 85-91.

Abraham, J., W. Strapp, C. T. Fogarty, and M. Wolde, 2004: Extratropical transition of Hurricane Michael: An aircraft investigation.
Bul. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 85, 1323-1339.

Fogarty, C. T., 2004: Aircraft data from rapidly-moving Hurricane Juan south of Nova Scotia. Preprints
, 26th Conf. on Hurricanes
and Tropical Meteorolo
gy, 3-7 May 2004, Miami Beach, FL, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 166-167.

Fogarty, C. T., 2004: Why did a category-2 hurricane hit Nova Scotia?: An explanation of the unusual intensity of Hurricane Juan.
Canadian Meteor. and Oceanogr. Soc. Bul., 32(2), 41-42.

Ma, S., H. Ritchie, J. R. Gyakum, J. Abraham, C. T. Fogarty, and R. McTaggart-Cowan, 2003: A study of the extratropical
reintensification of former Hurricane Earl using Canadian Meteorological Centre regional analyses and ensemble forecasts
. Mon.
Wea. Re
v., 131, 1342-1359.

Fogarty, C. T., 2002: Hurricane Michael, 17-20 October, 2000: Part I - Summary report and storm impact on Canada.  Part II -
Forecast and warning critique.  Meteorological Service of Canada, Atlantic Region Science Report Series 2002-01, 35 pp.
Available online at

Fogarty, C. T., 2002: Operational forecasting of extratropical transition. Preprints, 25th Conf. on Hurricanes and Tropical
gy,  29 April - 3 May 2002, San Diego, CA, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 491-492.

Abraham, J., C. T. Fogarty, and W. Strapp, 2002: Extratropical transition of Hurricanes Michael and Karen: Storm reconnaissance
with the Canadian Convair 580 aircraft. Preprints, 25th Conf. on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology, 29 April - 3 May 2002, San
Diego, CA, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 497-49
ET of Tropical Storm Ophelia
Storm track with SST
DAY 1 - SEPT 16:  SST (16/00Z)
RADAR:   16/1800 (NOWRAD)    Newport SKEW-T (12Z)
42RF mission:
WSPD:  2-6     9-12    12-18
THETAE:   2-6    9-12    12-18
RELH:   2-6     9-12    12-18

DAY 2 - SEPT 17:   SST (16/00Z)
17/1525    17/2015
RADAR:   17/2230
42RF mission:
WSPD:  1-5     5-11    13-18
THETAE:  1-5     5-11     14-18      
1-5    5-11    14-18

CHC Storm Summary      (operational summary)
AOML page on Ophelia
Aerosonde Flight - Sept 16

Synoptic-scale analyses (HH/DD UTC):
00/16    06/16   18/16    00/17   06/17   12/17   18/17   00/18
500 HT:  00/16  12/16   00/17  12/17   00/18
500 RH: 18/16    06/17   18/17

Rainfall analysis (courtesy of David Roth - HPC)

Animations (3km run): SLP     40-m wind speed     Rain rate
(1km run):  SLP     40-m wind speed     Rain rate
           Surface temperature

pre-storm SST   post-storm SST    change in SST     Anomaly

12-km tracks     3-km tracks
Graphs of results

Simulated rainfall compared with observations
That schematic with satellite examples: